Shenzhou and Dreams of Space

Sun Dangen

The successful flight of Shenzhou VI has impressed the world with a profound and lasting image of China’s capabilities in space. The mission showcased China’s reliable manned spaceflight technologies and validated its ability to manage large-scale projects. Yet, while Shenzhou VI has been a major milestone in China’s space program, it is only one step along China’s long journey to becoming a great space-faring nation.

China’s space program lags behind those of the United States and Russia, and will for many years to come. Facing a large gap in space technology and know-how, China fervently desires international cooperation on space issues, especially with the United States, and believes such cooperation will be beneficial for all parties. China embraces the idea of utilizing space peacefully and seeks to avoid a space arms race. Its space program is intended to advance China’s economic and technological development and is neither oriented towards, nor optimized for, military purposes.

A number of recent gestures between the United States and China have set the stage for renewed Sino-American space cooperation. Now, both nations must seize the present opportunity to ameliorate existing tensions and build towards a better future.

A Latecomer but Moving Forward

Despite the increased confidence in its spaceflight project brought about by Shenzhou VI, large disparities still exist in experience and technology between China’s manned space program and its Russian and American counterparts. Relative to these two programs, China’s program remains in its infant stage.

In April 1961, the Soviet Union’s Vostok 1 carried Yuri Gagarin on a 108 minute tour of space. Twenty-three days later, Alan Shepard became the first American to follow suit. It was more than 40 years later, in 2003, when China sent its first traveler, Yang Liwei, into space.

In the course of its Apollo program alone, between 1968 and 1972, the United States sent 29 explorers into space. To date, China has sent only three.

Though China’s manned space program began at a comparatively later date it is progressing at a fast pace. The successful Shenzhou V and Shenzhou VI missions, which realized the objective of manned spaceflight, marked the conclusion of the first phase of China’s manned spaceflight program, which began in 1992. In the context of China’s priorities for manned space flight, the real significance of this first phase was in its demonstration of China’s capability to perform human-operated scientific experiments in space.

The objective of the second phase will be the construction of an orbiting space laboratory. This laboratory will be manned and operated on an intermittent basis, and will orbit unmanned for an extended period. The challenges to be met during this phase will include: rendezvous and docking procedures between the space laboratory and a spacecraft, shuttling astronauts between the Earth and the laboratory, testing their living and working conditions in space, and accomplishing a spacewalk.

The third phase will involve the creation of a Chinese space station. Two to three astronauts will be stationed there for extended periods of time in order to conduct scientific experiments, again serviced by shuttles transporting supplies, materials and experiment products.

Four further Shenzhou missions have already been planned in order to advance this agenda. The next flight, Shenzhou VII, will feature a spacewalk; Shenzhou VIII will launch a target object with which Shenzhou IX will subsequently execute an unmanned docking exercise. Shenzhou X will then carry out a manned docking test. The intervals between the launches of Shenzhou VIII and Shenzhou X will be very short, with a schedule of approximately one launch per month.

In the longer term, China’s space agenda, like that of the United States, includes plans for lunar exploration. China’s lunar program will also be divided into three phases. The first phase, scheduled for 2007, will send an exploratory satellite into orbit around the moon. The second phase will send exploratory robotic landers to the moon by 2015. The third phase will see astronauts land by 2020, two years after the United States plans to launch its next generation of explorers.

Benefits of Manned Spaceflight

The economic benefits generated through manned spaceflight are evident, with great rewards on investment. According to the International Space Business Council’s State of the Space Industry, a report published in August 2005, revenue from the space industry’s global commercial services and government contracts totaled $103 billion in 2004. This figure is expected to surpass $158 billion by 2010. The ratio of financial input to output of the space industry is about 1:2, and the corresponding ratios of supporting industries range from 1:8 to 1:14. A manned space program, therefore, contributes to the goal of economic development that lies at the core of China’s national development strategy.

For China, the direct economic benefits of the successful Shenzhou VI flight are the revitalization of the country’s business in the international satellite launch market. The Long March (LM) rocket has a track record of almost 50 consecutive successful launches, which, coupled with its comparatively lower cost, will provide China with growing numbers of satellite launch orders. Economic returns from Chinese industries related to the space program have already reached 120 billion RMB ($14.9 billion).

Technologies developed for manned spaceflight have also filtered down through numerous Chinese industries into goods produced for daily civilian use. The civilian application of manned spaceflight technologies are found in many aspects of Chinese people’s lives and work, including precision navigation, meteorological forecasting and disaster warning. As a vivid example, Chinese farmers living in remote areas gain significantly as seeds with drastically improved agricultural yields are tested in space. This has the potential of helping turn China’s vast waste lands into arable fields, which will play an especially important role for a country like China with the majority of its population dependent on agriculture. Such benefits will have a far-reaching significance for improving China’s social stability.

Butter, Not Guns

Numerous commentators in the international media have looked beyond these obvious economic rationales and suggested that China’s manned space program will greatly enhance its military capabilities. These allegations do not stand up to scrutiny, however. The peaceful objective of China’s space exploration program is undisputable.

In the history of human society, every major scientific and technological breakthrough has been closely intertwined with both war and peace. Whether such a breakthrough has aided the advancement of human society or destroyed the fruits of that society has depended on whether the country or organization mastering that technology intends to seek peace through development, or to win peace through wars and hegemony. To take a stark example, nuclear technology is one the greatest scientific innovations mankind has known in the 20th Century. When applied to military goals, nuclear weapons could destroy our civilizations several times over. However, when used for peaceful intent, nuclear technology can play a huge role in the area of energy, medicine and other scientific purposes.

In light of the importance placed on intent, China’s space program faces critical choices: to serve military or civilian purposes. China’s national development strategy focuses on economic development, with the goal of providing China’s vast population a prosperous livelihood by building a harmonious society. Today, China’s space program serves the nation’s strategic goals: economic development, social improvement and scientific and technological advancement.

Alternatively, when the security of a rising China is threatened or violated, its space capabilities will no doubt be key to protecting the nation’s national security interests. This is not unique to China’s space program, but is true for the programs of other major nations, including the United States.

Keeping in mind the important role that scientific and economic development play in China’s space program, all the technologies used for China’s manned space flights have been essential for sending humans into space and for its peaceful exploration and use. Anyone with rudimentary military knowledge will understand that any assertions to the contrary are inaccurate and incorrect.

One such claim regarding the “dual-use” nature of the Shenzhou program, involves the contention that the powerful Shenzhou launch vehicle, if fitted with a warhead, could serve as an advanced ballistic missile. The liquid-fueled Long March-2F carrier rocket used by China’s manned space program requires approximately 20 hours to fuel, unlike the U.S. and Russian mobile, solid-fuel strategic missiles, which can be launched within minutes. Time is the essence for success in modern warfare; which therefore requires light and swift weapons and technologies.

A second line of thinking suggests that the orbital-maneuvering technology utilized by the Shenzhou capsule may allow Chinese missiles to evade a missile defense system. The United States and Russia long ago possessed spacecraft orbital-maneuvering technology, though China developed this technology only in the 1970s. The Shenzhou program has therefore not demonstrated any capabilities that China has not already had for several decades. The capabilities exhibited by the recently deployed U.S. missile defense system are a great deal more advanced than those developed almost half a century ago. Relying on decades-old technology would be ‘throwing an egg against a rock,’ and will never be a strategic option for the descendants of the military strategist Sun Tzu.

It has also been suggested that instruments aboard the Shenzhou craft may be used for military reconnaissance. In particular, questions have been raised about Shenzhou VI’s orbital module, which remained in orbit after the reentry module brought the mission’s crew back to Earth. Quite simply, it would be a waste of the limited resources dedicated to China’s manned space program to use the expensive and already-complex manned spacecraft to accomplish tasks that could be accomplished by unmanned satellites. Regardless, the capabilities necessary for any spacecraft do not nearly compare with the surveillance capabilities of major space-faring countries. For instance, the resolution of U.S. ground surveillance satellites is accurate to the centimeter and those satellites have been launched in numbers up to 100 per year, providing coverage of the Earth several times over. China simply cannot compare with the United States in terms of launch capability and Earth surveillance capability.

Other commentators have questioned China’s use of military launch pads for its civilian manned space program and of military servicemen for its space crews. These practices are in accordance with the experience of space powers. Both the United States and the Soviet Union recruited their first astronauts from within the ranks of their military -- Yuri Gagarin was an Air Force pilot and Alan Shepard a Naval aviator. Military pilots are superior in quality and enjoy a high level of training. Military personnel are highly disciplined and therefore are naturally suited for running a mission as huge and complex as manned space flight. Even today, many NASA employees previously served in the U.S. Armed Forces, and the head of Russia’s Federal Space Agency was formerly the general commander of Russia’s space forces. Yet, these military men are now engaged in the peaceful use of space. What country has not launched its manned space vehicle from a base operated and commanded by the military? Existing military launch sites are easily transformed and maintained for civilian use.

Certain individuals in the United States exaggerate a ‘China threat’ by emphasizing the ties between China’s space program and its military. Such misguided views go so far as to suggest that China may launch a “21st Century war” against the United States aided by satellite ground stations and anti-satellite systems allegedly deployed in Latin America. Such sentiment is baffling as China has not dispatched a single soldier abroad, with the exception of fulfilling its peacekeeping responsibilities to the United Nations. Furthermore, China maintains no military bases abroad and has been active in promoting the prevention of space weaponization.

China’s manned space program is still in an incipient stage, and the technologies, capabilities, quantity and quality of its spacecraft remain substantially behind those of the United States and Russia. China maintains a national policy of ‘peaceful development,’ and the core of its military strategy is ‘active defense.’ Objectively speaking, many technologies, including manned space technology, could be used for both civilian and military purposes. Which direction China’s manned space program will go and for which purpose these technologies will be used will be determined by the country’s political will. Although China’s manned space technologies have the potential to be transformed for military use in the future, the world shouldn’t assume that China’s space program is created for military purposes.

Peaceful and harmonious development is the existing strategic goal China has set for its future. When the success of the manned space program helps consolidate the country’s strength, it will further lock China in the development path of protecting national security with advancement of science and technology and national comprehensive strength. The assumption that China will launch an offensive strike against other nations’ satellites is hence implausible. China does not feel the necessity to, does not have the capability to, and will not fight a war against the United States.

Windows of Opportunity

One important purpose for China’s manned space program is to enhance its own technology and capability in space. This will lay the groundwork for international cooperation in manned space exploration. Without sufficient capability and strength, China won’t be qualified to partner with others and absent communication and exchange of technology beneficial to all parties, cooperation in space cannot be sustained.

China has made great strides in its manned spaceflight through self-reliance and hard work. Today, China has sufficient economic and technical potential to further develop its manned spaceflight program independently. However, a great technological gap remains between China and the original space-faring nations. China therefore realizes that in order to continue effectively down its chosen path of national development, it must join the international space community and adhere without reservation to its norms and common practices. China’s manned spaceflight program must cooperate more with other space programs in the international community. Only when the collective wisdom, talent and resources of all nations are put to cooperative use can mankind truly make great strides in exploring space.

Since the 1980s, China’s space flight industry has, in fact, had extensive ties with other countries, especially the United States. During the 1990s, China launched many U.S.-made satellites. Unfortunately, this cooperation was interrupted in 1999 when the U.S. House of Representatives released the Cox Commission Report, which groundlessly alleged that China had stolen U.S. missile technologies. This interruption was a great loss to both nations.

At present, the main obstacle to Sino-U.S. cooperation on manned spaceflight is that the United States believes China’s space programs lack transparency and are controlled by the military. However, space cooperation and trust between these two nations are gradually being reestablished. Before the launch of Shenzhou VI, the United States volunteered information to the Chinese space program on space debris and U.S. spacecraft activities. China responded with details about Shenzhou VI. Both countries used U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s visit to China in October 2005 as an occasion to indicate their sincere interest in transparency and reciprocity. China, in particular, demonstrated its openness and desire for a Chinese-U.S. military exchange.

A senior member of a U.S. delegation visiting Beijing in January 2006 said President George W. Bush had conveyed that he wanted to discuss space cooperation with China during the Sino-U.S. summit in April 2006. This signifies “a significant step in the right direction” for Sino-U.S. space cooperation. The leader of China’s space program has also expressed a strong interest in upgrading the Shenzhou space vessel to be able to dock with any U.S. space vehicle or the International Space Station. This indicates U.S. recognition of China’s rapid progress in space exploration, which will increase the potential for cooperation in space, but will also enhance the military ties between the two countries. This, in turn, will contribute greatly to improving mutual trust and world peace.

In the interest of peace and development of the world, China is very open-minded to cooperation in space. With a growing space program, China has every reason to desire cooperation with a space superpower like the United States. China sees great opportunity to enhance its capacities and the well being of its people through joint efforts to explore space and to utilize its resources peacefully. If the U.S. government wishes to demand concrete and reasonable concessions from the Chinese space program in exchange for such cooperation, it should consider those concessions carefully and present them for discussion. Such a position would be a welcome change from the current U.S. approach, which has been perceived by the Chinese as one of besieging, persecuting, blockading and intercepting Chinese institutions and ambitions.

In many ways, the contribution of China’s space program to international efforts in manned spaceflight could mirror that of Russia, which now carries provisions to the International Space Station and has taken over astronaut transportation following the Columbia Shuttle accident.

Future space cooperation should build on the experiences described above, and be guided by principles of mutual respect and interest in the goals of economic, human and scientific development through peaceful use of space. In spite of the delicate relations between the United States and China, the two nations can still cooperate closely in exploring the unknown. Further cooperation can include fostering commercial satellite development, developing technology for manned spaceflight, performing scientific experiments in space and cultivating the skills and interest of talents in this area. All cooperation should be voluntary for both countries.

China looks forward to working together with the United States and the international community to explore and exploit space peacefully in the interest of all mankind.