Literature Review

Su Dejin

Open source literature on a range of subjects germane to China’s domestic and international security is rapidly becoming more widely available. Yet, this body of information remains largely inaccessible to people outside China, in part because the vast majority of it remains in Chinese, but also because many of the publications are not readily available on the Internet. To help remedy this situation, China Security reviews below a number of articles culled from more than 60 publications based on the criteria: that they come from established journals; and that they are well-written with a standard degree of fact-based analysis. This literature was primarily selected from journals, conference proceedings, doctoral dissertations and newspapers. Many are gathered from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), a pay-per-view, on-line document service.

The articles in this review cover various aspects of China’s space industry, but primarily focus on reactions to the threat of space weaponization. The popularity of this topic amongst Chinese writers is evidence of China’s growing concern over U.S. plans for missile defense and space-based weapons. They were also selected to compensate for the scarcity of English resources on China’s views regarding this issue. However, China Security makes no claim that these articles represent in any degree the position or opinions of the Chinese government or the military. Neither does the collection of articles chosen reflect the views of editors of this journal.

“The Status and Lessons of Russia’s Manned Space Program”

Li Ming (Deputy Director of the 8511th Institute, China Aerospace Science & Industry Corporation)

Journal of Aerospace Electronic Warfare, Issue 1, 2005 (Sponsored by the China Aerospace Science & Industry Corporation, or CASIC, a leading state-owned space corporation in China)

Li’s article proposes how to negate U.S. space dominance by utilizing electronic warfare, due to its relatively low cost, efficiency and non-lethal nature. He believes that, in response to U.S. and Russian efforts to build a space arsenal, China should adopt a new military ideology, recognizing the strategic significance of a space presence. Moreover, the author suggests that, in the future, electronic warfare in space will become a decisive factor in potential conflicts.

As it is unrealistic and unnecessary for China to pursue conventional military supremacy, Beijing should concentrate on areas where it enjoys a unique technological capability, such as electromagnetic technology. Given this comparative advantage, Li believes China could consider conducting electronic surveillance and electronic attacks. More specifically, with respect to space conflict, China could jam an enemy’s space-based sensors, instead of physically destroying them using kinetic energy kill vehicles or space mines. Singling out the Global Position System (GPS) and satellite-borne synthetic aperture radar as the largest threats, Li concludes that China will have an edge in space warfare if it acquires the technology to both impede the function and reduce the effectiveness of enemy satellites.

“China’s Strategies to Develop International Market for Commercial Satellite Launch”

Zhang Huiting (Deputy Editor of Aerospace China)
Aerospace China, Issue 2 & 4, 2005

“China’s Satellite Application Industry: Today and Tomorrow”

Tong Huijie, Ge Bangjun,
Aerospace China, Issue 5, 2005

These articles offer fairly candid analyses of the prospects for China’s commercial satellite launch industry. The obstacles faced by the industry are growing international competition and a dwindling market share. As global customers increasingly value service reliability over price, China has lost some of its competitive edge with its comparatively less reliable rockets. An inability to carry larger payloads, a lower capacity to launch multiple satellites on a single rocket, and inefficiency with regard to launch management systems all contribute to China’s woes in the commercial launch business. However, China also holds certain advantages, such as a booming domestic satellite launch market, improve satellite-manufacturing technology, lower labor costs, and the success of its manned space program.

Zhang offers a number of proposals to improve China’s performance in the international launch market. First, China should move ahead with construction of new launch sites, such as the one on Hainan Island in Southern China, which can offer reductions in transportation costs and improved launch site conditions. In addition, China must master the technology to design, research and manufacture its own commercial satellites. This will enable it to circumvent the handicap placed on it by U.S. policies that require an onerous application and licensing process in order to launch U.S.-manufactured satellites or satellites with U.S.-made parts. To better benefit from global technology and resources, China should also form joint ventures, and strengthen cooperation with Russia, Europe and developing nations. The author also asserts that China should seek financial help from domestic and overseas markets and offer loans to customers.

Tong and Ge provide a detailed introduction to China’s satellite application industry, its current status and potential areas of future growth. Satellites have become an indispensable tool for China with a broad array of applications. Nevertheless, China’s satellite industry is still in its infancy. The satellite communications industry is facing fierce competition and steadily losing business to ground-based service providers. Navigation services are still relatively weak, as service providers are generally small contract companies unable to provide technical support to clients. Remote sensing satellites, particularly those made domestically, are playing an increasing role in Earth surveillance for civilian purposes including environmental monitoring, mineral resource surveying and urban development planning. Areas with the most growth potential include live broadcast, digital audio/video, broadband data transmission and Internet access, and satellite navigation services.

“Space Policy Adjustments by the U.S.A, Japan, Europe and Russia Create both Opportunities and Challenges for China”

Tong Qingxi (Academician, Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Science) , Ma Jianwen (Research Scientist, Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Science) , Cao Xuejun (Chief of Department of High and New Technology Development and Industrialization, Ministry of Science and Technology)
Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 9, No. 3, May 2005 (Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Geographic Society of China)

This article offers an analysis of China’s policies on space. As China’s policy-making mindset is principally reactive in nature, policies are largely made in response to the actions of other countries. While such an approach should be regarded as positive overall, the authors suggest it has a number of pitfalls. First, a country cannot stay ahead of the curve by simply countering other nations’ initiatives. Second, there is the danger of misinterpreting and misperceiving others’ actions and intentions. The article calls for a more proactive policy approach, particularly for space.

Following the Cold War, economic and scientific development has become the engine driving space exploration. Major space-faring nations have come to realize that their space policies have a huge bearing on their global competitiveness and overall national strength. Thus, China should develop satellites for a wide range of applications, including weather forecasting, resource surveying, environmental monitoring, communications, and global positioning. China should also focus on enhancing its heavy payload capacity rockets with clean fuel and dual-use application.

“Thoughts on Establishing a Space-based Information System for China’s Military”
Qian Zongfeng (Graduate Student of School of Communication Engineering, PLA University of Science and Technology), Zhang Gengxin.

The Journal of Technology Foundation of National Defense, Issue 1, 2005 (A journal sponsored by China North Industries Group Corporation, China’s leading weapons producer)

With remarkable clarity and detail, Qian and Zhang sketch a roadmap for China to develop its own space-based information system. In contrast to other articles dealing with similar subjects, the United States, in this case, is not regarded as the potential adversary. Rather, U.S. superiority in surveillance, communication and global positioning capabilities serve as inspiration to the authors, who see China’s space-based information system useful in a regional conflict in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

The authors propose a step-by-step approach in building China’s space systems. The initial objective is an evaluation of what should be constructed, based on necessity and feasibility. It is imperative to develop communications and surveillance systems first, while simultaneously ensuring that such systems have navigation and global positioning capabilities. Other smaller systems and sub-systems should be integrated to form a large single network capable of facilitating information sharing and decision-making. To ensure the survivability of this system, China should strengthen both its defensive and offensive capabilities in order to deter attacks against its space assets.

The article also details how satellites can be constructed to better survive both hardware and software attacks. Such improvements include back-up satellites, orbital modification capabilities, shutters to protect high-resolution lenses, stealth technology and satellite-based early warning sensors. As it is easier to attack than to defend a satellite, the authors suggests China should also develop the technology to disable enemy satellites, such as utilizing high-powered lasers to damage surveillance satellites in Low- and Medium-Earth Orbit while they pass over China. Jamming the satellite or interfering with its remote control and surveillance system could cause its orbit to decay by disrupting the satellite’s uplink systems.

“Discussion of Anti-Satellite Weapon Equipment Development”

Yuan Liwei (Ph.D. candidate of the Air Force Engineering University), Yang Jianjun (Professor of the Air Force Engineering University)

Winged Missiles Journal, Issue 12, 2004 (A Journal sponsored by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, the State-owned flagship enterprise in the space sector)
Yuan and Yang justify the development of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons based on a calculus of necessity; namely, that the weaponization of outer space has already severely threatened China’s strategic security. The development of ASATs will greatly enhance China’s prospects of winning a regional high-tech war while simultaneously stimulating growth in space technology industries. It is not only necessary, but also feasible to develop such weapons. China has the financial resources and technological means to further this goal, including precision-guidance systems, launch vehicles for ballistic missiles as well as satellite orbital maneuvering technology. Yet, if China is to develop ASAT weapons, it must also address a number of issues. Thus, space warfare theories and rules, the formation and structure of ASAT forces and key relevant technologies should be thoroughly researched.

As military action against satellites is a highly sensitive strategic issue, different methods of attack (physical destruction, damage to key systems or jamming communications) should be employed according to the particular situation. The authors conclude that, given the enhanced role satellites will play in future wars, ASAT weaponry is destined to be a key factor in ensuring space superiority and national security. To make certain the credibility of deterrence, and to safeguard its security and national interests in the 21st Century, China must apply an asymmetrical strategy in accordance with its particular condition, actively researching and developing ASATs.

“The Launch of Shenzhou
VI Highlights the Many-fold Significance of China’s Rise”
Ren Jiantao (Dean of Department of Public Administration, Sun Yat-sen University)

Nanfang Daily, Oct. 13, 2005

Published one day after the successful launch of China’s second manned space flight, Ren’s work bathes in a mood of patriotic triumph. He reflects on the cultural and national significance of the event for China. The launch symbolizes China’s emergence as a world power, the author states. This new status does not necessarily guarantee economic or political dominance in international affairs, but imparts recognition of China’s contribution to achieving man’s destiny and its responsibility for playing a part in the international order. China should ensure that its development is conducive to the overall development of the global community.

The author asserts that the space launch can serve to broaden the political vision of China, which until recently has been preoccupied with more earthly matters such as political autonomy and economic development. The launch has also served to boost the country’s confidence in its future, effectively ending the sense of backwardness that has plagued the nation for more than a century. Such a transformation of mindset may help to make the Chinese people more politically rational, as the success of Shenzhou VI highlights the significance of science and technology and China’s mastery of it. This departs from a tradition of impulsive behavior, the author tells us, as epitomized by the chaotic Cultural Revolution.

“China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation’s Human Resource Management and Global Development Strategy”

The Communist Party Committee of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC)

Aerospace China, Issue 1, 2004

Although this article is collectively written by the Communist Party leadership of China’s flagship space company, it transcends a fa?ade of propaganda. The authors concentrate on CASC’s strategy to fully tap its potential in a market economy through rational workforce management. The general aim is to ensure that the company operates efficiently, which entails a 10 percent annual layoff rate but also means attracting and retaining young talent. Currently, the ratio between management, experts and technicians is 1:4:6, and employees younger than 45 now hold 57 percent of the leadership positions in all areas of the company’s research institutes and bases. Presently, within the manned space program, one-third of researchers are younger than 35. CASC has been attempting to create a level playing field for its employees regarding income and advanced training opportunities. Other measures to enhance the competency, creativity and commitment of individual workers include: transferring employees overseas and dispatching workers to manage domestic joint ventures for dual-use products.

Recognizing that the most advanced technology is virtually impossible to acquire through international cooperation, the company has committed enormous resources to establish new labs and to set up cooperative relationships with Chinese universities. CASC has also worked hard to create a more horizontal working environment, where its younger R&D staff can interact frequently with the company’s top researchers and technicians -- thus ensuring expertise is passed on to the younger generation. Of course, the article also emphasizes a corporate culture highlighting national interest, self-reliance and quality control.

“America’s Outer Space Policy and the Cold War: Misconceptions and an Excessively Defensive Mentality”

Zhang Yang (Lecturer of the Northeast Normal University of China, Ph.D. candidate)

American Studies Quarterly, Issue 3, 2005 (Sponsored by the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Utilizing newly declassified information, Zhang examines the relationship between U.S. space policy and the Cold War, citing documents from the administrations of Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. The author argues that the United States, stung by the success of the Soviet satellite Sputnik, reacted excessively in formulating its space policy. This had a large and lasting impact on American actions in the Cold War. Wishing to avoid further surprises, the United States has been bracing for the eventuality of a “greater than expected threat.” This defense-oriented mentality has abetted the misconception of Russian and Chinese space capabilities, which has negatively affected bilateral relations. In one extreme instance, the United States, fearful that purported Russian missile technology transfers to China would tip the balance between the two camps, chose to export missile technology to Japan. The author argues that even today, U.S. space policy is still, to a large extent, based on ill-conceived views. The irrational assessment of a rival’s capabilities leads to an equally irrational response from the United States. Zhang fails to mention, however, the contributing factors to these misconceptions and what the United States or China should do to reduce the gap between perception and reality.

“The Space Development Strategy of China’s New Industrialization”

Han Minqing (Vice President of Shandong Academy of Social Science, Director of New Industrialization Research Center)

Shandong Social Science, Issue. 6, 2004 (Sponsored by Shandong Academy of Social Science)

This article is representative of a large amount of writing urging China to fulfill ambitious goals in space. According to Han, the development of space will largely define the modern age of industrialization. Space development includes resource exploitation, which encompasses new energy sources, materials and the establishment of new settlements. The pursuit of knowledge of outer space and the scientific and technological means to conquer it will be a central driving force in exploring this new frontier. If China is to be a world power, it must be a space power, argues the author. He looks far into the future and urges China to pursue construction of lunar bases for deep space exploration and acquiring new energy sources and materials. Following this, China should establish bases on Mars. Accomplishing these feats will require major breakthroughs in launch vehicle capability, artificial intelligence, space networking technologies, chemistry and life sciences.

China should not be discouraged by the massive initial financial commitment demanded to fulfill its potential in space. Such investment serves a higher purpose than immediate economic return. It will ultimately benefit China and help all mankind to reach a brighter future. China must view space exploration as the inexorable trend of the new age of industrialization. The author approaches this subject with an almost religious zeal due to his belief that, in a time of space development, material comfort is less important than the man’s collective curiosity and creativity. To the author, even national interest pales in face of such pursuits. In short, this article is an attempt to lay the philosophical groundwork for Chinese space exploration.

“Analysis of the Future War’s Demands on China’s Satellite System Security and Anti-Jamming Technology”

Zhou Yuchang, Xi Qingling, Lei Shaomin, Xiong Zhifan (Fifth Research Institute of CASC)
Proceedings of the Satellite Telecommunications Conference, 2004 (collected by CNKI)

An information war in space, insist the authors, is all but inevitable. Control of outer space is key to ensuring national security, thus the weaponization of space is unavoidable. The United States has been preparing for this eventuality for some time. The authors urge China to also prepare for such inevitability now, with the first step increasing the survivability and anti-jamming capabilities of its satellites. The risks currently faced by China’s satellites include data interception, signal jamming and damage by physical destruction. To defend against such threats, China should provide protection to satellites and ground stations. The authors maintain that such capabilities lag behind those of the United States by approximately 20-30 years. The current defense mechanisms of China’s satellites are mainly designed to combat exposure to the elements, not hostile forces. Chinese space assets, whether for defensive or offensive purposes, should possess better active and passive defense mechanisms against both reversible and irreversible attacks.

Though China did engage in limited satellite anti-jamming research during the 9th and 10th Five-Year Plan periods (1996-2005), the authors suggest that China expand such efforts during the 11th Five-Year Plan period (2006-2010). Of particular importance are the applications of nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and signal processing.